Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any country provides direct military support to Venezuela after January 5, 2026. Military support includes: combat troops, weapons systems, ammunition, military aircraft, naval vessels, or active military personnel engaged in combat operations or direct defense of Venezuelan territory/goverment.

The market resolves NO if no country provides such support tis year (2026). Diplomatic statements, humanitarian aid, or technical maintenance/training by foreign military personnel do not count as military support for this market.

Background

On January 3, 2026, President Nicolás Maduro was deposed and captured in a U.S. military operation. The Venezuelan government remained in place with Delcy Rodríguez becoming acting president of Venezuela.

Prior to the U.S. operation, Maduro had strengthened relations with China and Russia, asserting that the relationship with Beijing is one of "deep, broad, and stable trust," and working to deepen cooperation with Moscow. In October 2025, amid a buildup of American forces in the Caribbean, Maduro reached out to Russia, China and Iran requesting defensive radars, aircraft repairs and potentially missiles.