Will a P5 nation veto a 2026 UNSCR about US military action in Venezuela or its vessels?
2
100Ṁ30
Dec 31
69%
chance

Yes if a resolution fitting that description (likely about 2025-2026 activity) would pass but is vetoed by any delegates representing US, UK, China, France, or Russia. Resolution must be meaningfully "about" US attacks on Venezuela or Venezuelan ships, not merely mentioning them.

  • Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market opened with a slight bias to YES due to the precedent of the veto of S/21048 on the US invasion of Panama.

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opened with slight bias to yes due to the veto of S/21048 on the US invasion of Panama

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