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Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ640
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
N/A
SB 1047 passes and yes
Resolved
NO
SB 1047 does not pass and yes
Resolved
N/A
SB 1047 passes and no
Resolved
YES
SB 1047 does not pass and no

SB 1047 is proposed legislation in California that (as of writing) has the following definition of "critical harm":

(1) “Critical harm” means any of the following harms caused or enabled by a covered model or covered model derivative:

(A) The creation or use of a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon in a manner that results in mass casualties.

(B) Mass casualties or at least five hundred million dollars ($500,000,000) of damage resulting from cyberattacks on critical infrastructure by a model providing precise instructions for conducting a cyberattack or series of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

(C) Mass casualties or at least five hundred million dollars ($500,000,000) of damage resulting from an artificial intelligence model does both of the following:

(i) Acts with limited human oversight, intervention, or supervision.

(ii) Results in death, great bodily injury, property damage, or property loss, and would, if committed by a human, constitute a crime specified in the Penal Code that requires intent, recklessness, or gross negligence, or the solicitation or aiding and abetting of such a crime.

(D) Other grave harms to public safety and security that are of comparable severity to the harms described in subparagraphs (A) to (C), inclusive.

I will delegate to this question to determine if SB 1047 passes:

https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-california-bill-sb-1047-become

I will use my best judgement to determine if such harm has happened, but I expect insurance companies or analysts to provide credible estimates.

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Why has this closed? Seems like it can stay open?

@NathanpmYoung Extended

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