Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?
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The market resolves if one billion dollars worth of damages to digital infrastructure is caused by an AI powered virus by 2027.

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predicts NO

A virus is self replicating, and modern ML algorithms require a lot of memory. Would you resolve YES if the virus was a tiny program that just receives instructions from AI, but is not by itself something one would consider AI?

predicts NO

@Riemann Good point. Yes, as long as AI is vital to the virus, the market resolves. I will also resolve the market if a small program is created by an AI with no further interaction with the AI, because i think you could view the creation of the program as a type of instruction. If a singel AI releases several small programs that collectively causes damages worth one billion dollars, the market will resolve if the viruses are dependent on each other to do the damage, but not if they cause damage individually. This is because i think the damages could be attributed to one virus if the damages where impossible without it. Any damage by a single computer virus that would not be possible without the use of AI resolves the market. I am interested in the prospect of an early warning sign for AI risk, so a broad definition of "AI powered" makes sense.

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