Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident. Directed attacks (such as a nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack) are excluded, as the damage in those cases is intended by human operators. Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify as a rogue AI, there must be a loss of control over the AI system. This excludes directed and intentional attacks where the AI is operating under the control and intent of its deployers.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 36% chance (15 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

MANIFOLD

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

Ṁ220Ṁ327

2030

36%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.
- Directed attacks (such as a nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack) are excluded, as the damage in those cases is intended by human operators.

Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify as a rogue AI, there must be a loss of control over the AI system.
- This excludes directed and intentional attacks where the AI is operating under the control and intent of its deployers.

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bought Ṁ17 YES

OpenAI says its AI went rogue and launched 'unprecedented' cyber-attack

It is one of the first publicly disclosed cyber-attacks carried out by AI without direct human involvement.

It would be nice with a concrete definition of 'rogue AI'.

Something like "an AI pursuing harmful goals against the will of the deployers". Or does it have to involve loss of control over the AI?

@AlvinAnestrand Good point & yes, the intention is to differentiate between loss of control vs directed & intentional attacks

How is this different from simply asking "Will an AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?"

@singer I'm just looking to differentiate between loss-of-control incidents and directed attacks. A nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack would be different & excluded as the damage would be intended by human operators.