If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?
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If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
72% chance
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
48% chance
If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?
45% chance
Will federal legislation pre-empt CA SB 53 by Nov 2028?
50% chance
If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?
65% chance
AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.
23% chance
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
18% chance
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If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
72% chance
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
48% chance
If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?
45% chance
Will federal legislation pre-empt CA SB 53 by Nov 2028?
50% chance
If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?
65% chance
AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.
23% chance
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
18% chance