Bryan Caplan wins Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky?
14
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36%
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Copying from Caplan's blog post:
Holden wins $5000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible — according to Bryan Caplan — that at least one of the following was true:
Real Gross World Product was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at least 4x the real GWP of 2024.
Or: real GWP was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024.
Otherwise, Bryan wins $1000.
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