Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?
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He just took this AI bet at 50:50 odds to resolve in 6 years. Definitely more than a 2% chance of losing IMO https://betonit.substack.com/p/ai-bet
@wilsonkime https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an
GPT-4 got an A on 1 out of 6 tests (the only one given). Seems likely he could lose this bet now if someone were to give all the exams to GPT-4, inevitable with a few more months of progress, laughably trivial by 2029.
@dreev Ooh, good catch. I think I can allow that one since it's about something that'll happen before 2030. I expect the data from late 2029 won't decide it, though.
@NcyRocks I made a new market specifically about that bet: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-bryan-caplan-win-his-climate-b
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