Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
21
14kṀ18k2028
85%
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)
82%
Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)
78%
Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)
75%
Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)
69%
Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)
64%
Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)
59%
Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)
56%
Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)
55%
Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)
35%
Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)
31%
The bet will be annulled
27%
Miles will win the bet
10%
Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026
4%
Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development. The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
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