Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? | Manifold

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

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Basic

26

Ṁ8.3k

2043

23%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Details in this blog post. Barnett wins if:

By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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Worth noting that if Bryan loses, he will pay out 4 times what Matthew pays out if he loses, implying a probability of 20%.

Incidentally, the price is 15% at time of writing so @MatthewBarnett, if you want to bet more...

@BoltonBailey Not 25%?

@LightLawliet If I lose 4 dollars 20% of the time and win 1 dollar 80% of the time I break even.

Related questions

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?

Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Bryan Caplan be a grandfather by EOY 2036?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Samuel Knoche about college enrollment levels?

Will Matthew Barnett have a child by EOY 2032

Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150?

Related questions

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?

Will Bryan Caplan be a grandfather by EOY 2036?

Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Samuel Knoche about college enrollment levels?

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Will Matthew Barnett have a child by EOY 2032

Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?

Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150?