Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Basic
26
Ṁ8.3k2043
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Details in this blog post. Barnett wins if:
By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
8% chance
Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?
98% chance
Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
3% chance
Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?
35% chance
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance
Will Bryan Caplan be a grandfather by EOY 2036?
60% chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Samuel Knoche about college enrollment levels?
85% chance
Will Matthew Barnett have a child by EOY 2032
61% chance
Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150?
78% chance
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
8% chance
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance
Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?
98% chance
Will Bryan Caplan be a grandfather by EOY 2036?
60% chance
Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Samuel Knoche about college enrollment levels?
85% chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
3% chance
Will Matthew Barnett have a child by EOY 2032
61% chance
Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?
35% chance
Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150?
78% chance