If one AI thing, generally not considered AGI (maybe like an LLM swarm), breaks out and designs another AI thing against company wishes or knowledge which everyone agrees passes the AGI threshold, then how does this market resolve?

Surely DeepMind is now impossible as its not a separate company, right?

@capybara I interpreted the DeepMind option as referring to Google DeepMind, given that it is still often referred to as such, and given that there's no answer titled 'Google DeepMind'

Admittedly, Google Brain is also an answer that's listed, and both answers were added when the market was created (i.e. before the merger occurred) - but given that Google DeepMind is effectively a continuation of DeepMind, with Google Brain having been folded into it, I think it makes sense to consider 'Google Brain' as a dead answer, with 'DeepMind' referring to the new

entity

This interpretation is also given credence by the fact that a good number of traders have all bought YES on 'DeepMind' since the merger, suggesting they interpreted it similarly

@Nat the question and limited details both specify “company”, so I think anything that isn’t a company should not count. Unless OP chimes in to clarify. And I strongly disagree we “other traders buying X” as giving credence. They can all be misreading the question.

@capybara Oh, perhaps I've misunderstood your initial comment - when you referred to DeepMind no longer being a separate company, I interpreted that as referring to the fact that it merged with Google Brain to become Google DeepMind - were you instead referring to Google's purchase of DeepMind such that it's now a subsidiary and not a separate company?

@Nat yea, that it’s not a company. I guess it is possible that it splits off again, so not impossible.

@capybara Ah well in that case I disagree much more strongly - a subsidiary is absolutely still a type of company (it's just a company that's owned by another company) - see the wikipedia page on subsidiaries for example. And there are no clauses in the market requiring that it has to be an independent company or anything - only that it is a company

Furthermore, Google's purchase of DeepMind occurred in 2014, long long prior to the creation of this market, which would imply that the DeepMind answer was always invalid - despite having been added by the market creator themself

@Nat Interesting! Yes, I guess I’m coming around to the DeepMind answer. What are your thoughts on the US government?

@capybara Yeah that one I'm unsure of, might be worth pinging @FranklinBaldo for official clarification

Criteria-as-written would suggest such answers are invalid, but I'm guessing @FranklinBaldo is just using the term 'company' as more of an imprecise shorthand to refer to whatever organisational body is responsible, and therefore that US Government is a valid answer under criteria-as-intended

Ilya Sutskever (@ilyasut) on X

😛

Huffing the copium

Surely this goes up with the recent news

OpenAI makes great products and great infrastructure but let’s be honest they haven’t invented a single thing.

@Gigacasting lol

@Gigacasting But they were the ones to capitalize on the things that others invented.

@Adam I will not resolve to that. If a not listed company creates it first, it will resolve N/A

@FranklinBaldo What if one of these companies buys another? Will it resolve to both?

@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P

Which company will create AGI first?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition