
Which company will create AGI first?
80
Ṁ2kṀ4.7k2036
33%
Anthropic
20%
DeepMind
13%
OpenAI
10%
US Government
5%
Communist Party of China
5%
people not employed by a company
4%
xAI
4%
N/A
4%
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P
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Will we get AGI before 2028?
16% chance
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Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AI create the first AGI?
43% chance
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Will China get AGI first?
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Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
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Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?


