
Which company will create AGI first?
63
1.9kṀ39792036
25%
Anthropic
24%
OpenAI
20%
DeepMind
12%
US Government
6%
Communist Party of China
6%
people not employed by a company
4%
1.9%
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
1.5%
DeepSeek
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
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Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
By when will we have AGI?
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@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P
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Related questions
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
By when will we have AGI?