
Which company will create AGI first?
73
Ṁ1.9kṀ4.4k2036
39%
DeepMind
14%
OpenAI
11%
Anthropic
10%
xAI
10%
US Government
5%
Communist Party of China
5%
people not employed by a company
2%
1.3%
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
1.2%
DeepSeek
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
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Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
By when will we have AGI?
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@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P
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Related questions
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
By when will we have AGI?


