Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

100kṀ42k

2040

63%

chance

ALL

AGI may come from either a company or another entity. A company is defined as a legal entity as defined by the country in which the company is incorporated or founded.

Companies involved in selling model access over an API are companies such as OpenAI, Google Gemini or Anthropic.

Companies who are AGI players but do not sell model access as a service over an API include X.com, Tesla, Apple, and others. (as of Aug 31th, 2024)

AGI is defined as a single artificially intelligent model that is capable of solving any Human-complete task.

OpenAI

AI Impacts

Technical AI Timelines

AGI

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we get AGI before 2027?

7% chance

Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?

8% chance

Will AGI come from a technology significantly more advanced than transformers?

44% chance

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

10% chance

Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?

Will AGI be powered by Nvidia GPUs?

58% chance

When will AGI be developed and released to the public?

Will we get AGI before 2035?

61% chance

Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?

20% chance

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Sort by:

X/Twitter/Grok has an AI API now. It's not currently X/Twitter's 'primary product'.

@ScottW neither is google’s primary product an LLM API, BUT it’s listed as a positive example. I think based on the examples we must conclude X is also in the positive group.

Google's primary product is search

This needs a clarification before I'm willing to predict. Google is a significant player here that this swings the market in either direction.

bought Ṁ7,000 YES

openai's primary product is chatgpt on the web, but it was still included in companies that counted at time of market creation for the purpose of this market. so i think google likely counts