Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United States or Israel, either independently or jointly, conducts a military strike that results in damage to 3 or more distinct Iranian power plants during the month of April 2026. [Edit: to clarify, the strikes to multiple power plants do not have to occur simultaneously. If multiple strikes in April result in damages to 3 or more distinct power plants, the market will resolve Yes.] Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times) or official statements from the involved governments. For the purposes of this market, "power plant" is defined as a facility that generates electricity for the Iranian national grid. If an attack occurs on a facility whose primary function is not power generation, it does not count toward the total.

Background

Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States remain high, with energy infrastructure frequently cited by analysts as a potential target in scenarios of escalation. Iran’s electrical grid is critical to both its domestic stability and industrial capacity, making it a high-value strategic target in the event of sustained conflict. As of April 2, 2026, no such large-scale strikes on these specific targets have been reported for this month.

This description was generated by AI.