This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, the United States conducts ground military operations inside mainland Iran.

“Mainland Iran” excludes offshore islands such as Kharg Island.

For this market to resolve YES, all of the following must occur:

• At least 100 uniformed members of the United States Armed Forces are physically present on land inside Iranian sovereign territory.

• These personnel are participating in military ground operations (e.g., raids, combat operations, seizures of facilities, or other military activity conducted on the ground).

The following do not qualify:

• Airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone strikes conducted from outside Iran

• Naval operations in Iranian territorial waters

• Cyber operations

• US forces operating only from ships, aircraft, or neighboring countries

• Intelligence operations without uniformed US military personnel

• Small special forces raids involving fewer than 100 US troops

Resolution will rely on credible public reporting, including:

• Statements by the US government or Pentagon

• Reporting by major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, NYT, WaPo)

• Confirmation by widely cited defense analysts

If the exact number of US personnel involved is unclear, this market will resolve YES if credible reporting strongly indicates the operation involved roughly battalion-scale or larger US ground participation (≈100+ personnel).

If reporting indicates a small special forces raid or limited covert operation, it will resolve NO unless reliable sources indicate participation of at least 100 US military personnel.

In ambiguous cases not covered above, the market will resolve according to the best interpretation of the intent of this question, which is to capture whether the United States conducts meaningful ground military operations inside mainland Iran, not including minor raids or symbolic presence.