When will the AI bubble pop?
5
200Ṁ117
2036
March 23, 2030
7%
2025
14%
2026
17%
2027
14%
2028
14%
2029
14%
2030-2035
19%
No AI bubble.

Will there be a significant downward market movement in AI tech stocks over the next 10 years?

  • Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be subjective; there is no fixed numeric threshold.

    • No GDP or % drop rule—"significant" will be determined by the creator's judgment ("you'll know it when you see it").

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What qualifies as "AI tech stocks"? You tagged with "OpenAI" but it's not currently a public company.

@vee sorry, I used the autofilled ones. This is also something that is kind of ambiguous that I’d be interested in clarification on. I’d assume a large index market movement with lots of AI-centered products down being a “bubble pop”, but I wouldn’t resolve the market if only one or two companies crashed.

Can you define a "significant downward market movement"?

@Simon74fe I'm not sure. I kind of kept it vague because I haven't really lived through a financial bubble popping, but if you could give a percentage of GDP downturn or something of that nature that was utilized to categorize previous depressions I could probably use that or something

@EverettHunter For now, I'm going off of the US definition of pornography: "You'll know it when you see it"

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