When will the AI bubble pop?
49
1.2kṀ9007
2036
September 20, 2028
10%
2025
41%
2026
26%
2027
3%
2028
1%
2029
0.9%
2030-2035
17%
No AI bubble.

Will there be a significant downward market movement in AI tech stocks over the next 10 years?

  • Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be subjective; there is no fixed numeric threshold.

    • No GDP or % drop rule—"significant" will be determined by the creator's judgment ("you'll know it when you see it").

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Lol are people updating based on the Ilya interview?

Interesting movement

We need more liquidity and trading volume on this question.

What qualifies as "AI tech stocks"? You tagged with "OpenAI" but it's not currently a public company.

@vee sorry, I used the autofilled ones. This is also something that is kind of ambiguous that I’d be interested in clarification on. I’d assume a large index market movement with lots of AI-centered products down being a “bubble pop”, but I wouldn’t resolve the market if only one or two companies crashed.

Can you define a "significant downward market movement"?

@Simon74fe I'm not sure. I kind of kept it vague because I haven't really lived through a financial bubble popping, but if you could give a percentage of GDP downturn or something of that nature that was utilized to categorize previous depressions I could probably use that or something

@EverettHunter For now, I'm going off of the US definition of pornography: "You'll know it when you see it"

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