When (if ever) will AI cause human extinction?
13
300Ṁ488
2030
11%
2030-2040
16%
2040-2050
12%
2050-2075
7%
2075-2100
10%
2100-2500
6%
2500+
34%
Never
5%
Present-2030

Including scenarios of humans being "extinct in the wild": only a small population preserved for e.g. research puposes.

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it doesn't seem like this market can ever resolve to "Never"

@Stralor then again, can it ever resolve meaningfully to any of them?

@Stralor
...
You make an interesting point.

@StralorJokes aside, part of my thinking is that these markets aren't incentive-compatible in the first place (not being able to collect in the event of extinction, the long time scales...) so it's fine to throw a bone for the people who just want to express their opinions on the question.

That said, how about we circle back to this January 2501?

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