Will there be a Falcon 9 failure in 2024?
13
72
270
2025
13%
chance

Failures include any loss of customer or internal payload. Only operational launches or launch attempts will count; test or demo launches with no customer or internal (e.g. Starlink) payload will not be counted. Losses during launch operations leading up to the launch (e.g. AMOS-6) will be included. Falcon Heavy and other possible future derivatives are included. The booster landing(s) need not be successful.

Deployment failures will be accounted on the basis of whether SpaceX was responsible for the deployment mechanism. The Zuma failure would not count, for example.

In the event of ambiguity I'll refer to official communications from SpaceX and their customer, FAA statements, this Wikipedia page (or successor pages), reputable press sources, and whether or not there is a halt in launch operations.

Related questions:
/Inosen_Infinity/spacex-falcon-9-or-falcon-heavy-roc

/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-another-falcon-9-laun

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