MANIFOLD
Will we experience a year where all satellite launches fail before 2040?
11
แน€1kแน€864
2040
4%
chance

Resolves YES if there is a period of 365 days, the last day being no later than 12/31/2039, where no satellites launches are attempted or all attempted satellite launches fail.

A satellite launch will be considered to be a failure if no satellite on the launch remains in orbit for more than a year.

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