SpaceX's launch cadence has generally increased from year to year. Their workhorse Falcon 9 can lift approximately 25 tons to LEO. Their upcoming Starship, once operational, is claimed to be able to lift 4-6x as much. Its greater capacity could reduce the number of launches required for the same mass to orbit.
However, there is significant uncertainty about when Starship will take on an operational role. Additionally, SpaceX could use any additional launch capacity provided by Starship to increase their annual mass-to-orbit, rather than reducing Falcon 9 launches.
Other factors can always come into play as well. Will a Falcon 9 experience a significant failure in either 2024 or 2025, affecting the launch totals? Will Florida or the FAA introduce additional launch restrictions?
Regardless of the ultimate reasons, will SpaceX perform fewer launches in 2025 than they do in 2024?
Disclaimer: I will likely participate in this market.
A few minor questions just to double check:
Is this strictly fewer (i.e. equal number of launches resolves NO)?
Is this using the definition of launch that's commonly used here (lift-off from pad under its own thrust)?
And I assume there's no requirements for the launches to be orbital or successful or anything?