Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?
13
10kṀ12k
2030
28%
chance

The Atlas V has launched 100 times as of writing, with 99 successes and one partial failure. It is scheduled to launch 16 more times before retirement. Will any of those launches be unsuccessful?

Notably, the planned launch manifest includes six Starliner launches. The launch cadence is decreasing, which may have implications on reliability.

Success criteria will be "launch successes", as determined by the Wikipedia article criteria. "Failure" and "partial failure" will count as failures; "success" and "partial success" will count as successes.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy