
Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?
13
10kṀ12k2030
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Atlas V has launched 100 times as of writing, with 99 successes and one partial failure. It is scheduled to launch 16 more times before retirement. Will any of those launches be unsuccessful?
Notably, the planned launch manifest includes six Starliner launches. The launch cadence is decreasing, which may have implications on reliability.
Success criteria will be "launch successes", as determined by the Wikipedia article criteria. "Failure" and "partial failure" will count as failures; "success" and "partial success" will count as successes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any of the SpaceX Kuiper launches experience a launch failure?
2% chance
Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?
43% chance
Will we experience a year where all satellite launches fail before 2040?
4% chance
How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?
824
How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?
302
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will ISRO's LVM3 rocket experience a failure before 2030?
34% chance
Will Falcon 9 family of rockets launch to orbit (successfully) more times in 2025 than in 2024?
95% chance
Will SLS be cancelled before 2026?
11% chance
How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2025?