The Atlas V has launched 100 times as of writing, with 99 successes and one partial failure. It is scheduled to launch 16 more times before retirement. Will any of those launches be unsuccessful?
Notably, the planned launch manifest includes six Starliner launches. The launch cadence is decreasing, which may have implications on reliability.
Success criteria will be "launch successes", as determined by the Wikipedia article criteria. "Failure" and "partial failure" will count as failures; "success" and "partial success" will count as successes.
1,000At the current probability (29%), it implies a 7.5% chance of failure on each of the next 16 launches, which is far higher than the historical failure rate.
@LarsOsborne I think you have it backwards. 7.5% chance failure gives P(success per launch) = 0.925. 0.925^16 = .287 chance they all succeed. Market has .71 they all succeed.
.71 they all succeed => .979 chance of success per launch. Which seems a little low, but not absurd.