Will there be another Falcon 9 launch failure before retirement?
Basic
16
2.9k
resolved Jul 12
Resolved
YES

Will the Falcon 9 rocket family experience a launch failure before it is retired?

Failures include any loss of customer or internal payload. Only operational launches or launch attempts will count; test or demo launches with no customer or internal (e.g. Starlink) payload will not be counted. Losses during launch operations leading up to the launch (e.g. AMOS-6) will be included. Falcon Heavy and other possible future derivatives are included. The booster landing(s) need not be successful.

In the event of ambiguity I'll refer to official communications from SpaceX and their customer, FAA statements, this Wikipedia page (or successor pages), reputable press sources, and whether or not there is a halt in launch operations.

Close date will be extended as needed until the rocket family is either retired or experiences a failure.

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@EvanDaniel This can be resolved YES now:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1811620381590966321?t=asJ7aN_k75lzgpWQnOKjFw&s=19

"Upper stage restart to raise perigee resulted in an engine RUD for reasons currently unknown. Team is reviewing data tonight to understand root cause.

Starlink satellites were deployed, but the perigee may be too low for them to raise orbit. Will know more in a few hours."

As I'm reading that, the engine failed (rapid unscheduled disassembly), but not so energetically that they couldn't deploy the starlinks afterwards. It's a pretty clear failure, even if they are able to salvage the Starlinks.

As Tom Mueller commented:

"We knew this incredible run had to come to an end at some point, but 344 flights in a row is amazing! The team will fix the problem and start the cycle again"

Also, the market description says "Failures include any loss of customer or internal payload" rather than a failure being defined as a loss of payload.

Does a loss of payload for reasons other than a failure of the rocket count?
Eg the Zuma mission where it was reported that the Falcon 9 performed perfectly but that the Zuma satellite seemingly failed to separate from the payload adapter and was lost as a result?