YES -- Falcon anomaly in 2023 (including prelaunch anomalies, excluding landing failures) followed by the payload not getting to the target orbit. Partial failures (when some payload is delivered and some isn't) do not count.
NO otherwise
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@Inosen_Infinity Should this go ahead and resolve, since they've confirmed they're done launching for 2023?
Does failure to deploy a payload count as a falcon 9/H anomaly? Does who is responsible for the deployment matter? e.g. if rideshare customer is responsible for the deployment then it is not a falcon anomaly but if SpaceX is responsible for the deployment then it is a falcon anomaly, or something else governs this?. (Presumably falcon properly deploying space tug that then fails to deploy a payload is not a falcon 9/H anomaly.)
@ChristopherRandles this market was intended to be about the rocket. So, everything that has to do with the rocket counts. If the payload doesn't separate from the second stage I will consider this a YES case. Everything that happens after the separation doesn't matter.
Speaking of rideshare missions, for simplicity any separation failure counts. But I will resolve to YES if the failure is systematic for all the payload, i.e. if all the satellites except for one separate properly, and the remaining does not, I will not resolve to NO. (I will add this point to the description, thanks for asking!)
@Inosen_Infinity I think the most interesting edge case like that so far was the Zuma satellite failure.
@EvanDaniel Maybe, though that was 2018 so perhaps not as relevant as Transporter-6 which prompted the question. Re:
"EWS RROCI failed to deploy from the Falcon 9 second stage and reentered the atmosphere on the day of launch"
But I think the claim is clarified well enough, all of payload not separating is sufficient anomaly for yes but part of payload not separating is not enough for yes. Seems reasonable when this was 1 (or maybe 2 with an ICEYE deployment failure but the transfer vehicle failure probably doesn't count) of 115 payloads (but fewer separations events from Falcon 9).