Resolves exactly according to these two markets, and their resolution dates: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Noit/will-the-united-states-take-militar)(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-and)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No attack and not removed, followed by Attack and not removed and Removed without an attack are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).

Will the US attack a NATO member, and will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Ṁ1kṀ9.1k

2029

1.6%

Attack, then removal

0.4%

Removal, then attack

Removed without an attack

Attack and not removed

85%

No attack and not removed

Resolves exactly according to these two markets, and their resolution dates:

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2 Comments

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193 Trades

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Can someone please explain how we get from "January 2026 Donald Trump is in control of everything" to "Impeached and removed".

That feels like a huge leap right now. It seems like Congress only does what he wants.

Sorry, you didn't frame your question in the form of a market.

But seriously, I'm not sure. I think the routes probably involve some mix of:

He does something so beyond the pale as to really hurt popularity
Senators try to avoid the Trump brand
Big Dem swing in midterms

For markets to test it, I might try a joint market on midterm outcomes x impeachment. I'd also consider "which senators vote to convict Trump" and try to see if anyone has any interesting thoughts on what the vote would look like. 2/3 majority needs a bunch of R senators voting to convict!