Can someone please explain how we get from "January 2026 Donald Trump is in control of everything" to "Impeached and removed".

That feels like a huge leap right now. It seems like Congress only does what he wants.

Sorry, you didn't frame your question in the form of a market.

But seriously, I'm not sure. I think the routes probably involve some mix of:

• He does something so beyond the pale as to really hurt popularity

• Senators try to avoid the Trump brand

• Big Dem swing in midterms

For markets to test it, I might try a joint market on midterm outcomes x impeachment. I'd also consider "which senators vote to convict Trump" and try to see if anyone has any interesting thoughts on what the vote would look like. 2/3 majority needs a bunch of R senators voting to convict!