Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the United States conducts the first qualifying military attack against a NATO member state (as defined below) before the Russian Federation conducts the first qualifying military attack against a NATO member state, at any time after this market is created and before the N/A date.
How it resolves
YES: The first qualifying attack on any NATO member state is attributable to the United States, and it occurs before any qualifying Russian attack.
NO: The first qualifying attack on any NATO member state is attributable to the Russian Federation, and it occurs before any qualifying U.S. attack.
N/A (in 2050): Resolves N/A on 2050-12-31 23:59 UTC if neither the United States nor the Russian Federation has carried out a qualifying military attack against any NATO member state by that time.
Key definitions (for resolution)
NATO member state
Any sovereign state that is a member of NATO at the time the incident occurs.
Important: For purposes of a “U.S. attack on a NATO country,” this market only counts attacks on NATO members other than the United States (i.e., the U.S. cannot “attack” itself for this market).
Qualifying military attack
An incident counts as a qualifying military attack if all of the following are true:
Kinetic force is used (e.g., missile/artillery strike, airstrike, drone strike delivering ordnance, naval strike, cross-border ground incursion with fighting, bombardment).
The act is deliberately hostile (not a training accident, navigation accident, or clearly accidental discharge).
It is carried out by:
the regular armed forces of the United States / Russian Federation, or
forces credibly reported to be operating under that state’s direction or command for that specific operation.
It targets the territory, armed forces, or civilians of a NATO member state without the consent of that state’s nationally recognized government at the time.
It results in at least one fatality OR significant physical destruction (e.g., destruction of a building, major infrastructure damage), as credibly reported.
What does NOT count
Cyber operations without kinetic damage (no deaths, no physical destruction). Unless these cause at least >=5 billion dollars of damage or lost production.
Sanctions, blockades that are purely economic, espionage, propaganda, diplomatic threats.
Accidents clearly described as accidental (e.g., a stray munition during an exercise) unless later strongly evidenced to be deliberate.
Military action on a NATO member’s territory that is explicitly invited/authorized by that NATO member’s government (consented deployment/strike support).
Evidence standard (“strong evidence”)
“Strong evidence” means there is broad, credible public confirmation—typically through a combination of:
official statements from the attacked state and/or NATO,
official acknowledgment by the attacker, and/or
consistent reporting by multiple major, reputable international news organizations.
Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A "little green men" manoeuvre (covert military operation using unmarked forces, similar to Russia's 2014 Crimea operation) by the US on Greenland would qualify as a qualifying military attack for this market's resolution.
1,000