Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if the United States takes military action against any other member of NATO before the 1st of January 2027, otherwise resolves NO.

Military action includes but is not limited to:

remote attack by missile or drone.

Deploying ground troops to the other nation’s soil in contravention of the wishes of that nation.

Covert operations that are acknowledged by the US or strongly evidenced by the other nation.

Anything noted by both sides as a training exercise will not cause this market to resolve YES.

I will be acting as arbiter of “was this a military action” so will not bet, please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (26 traders, as of Mar 21, 2026).