Resolution criteria

No President has ever been impeached and removed from office. This market resolves YES if Trump is both impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate during his second term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029).

While it only takes a simple majority of the House to impeach, a vote of two-thirds of the Senate is required to convict. If the President is removed, the Vice-President assumes the Presidency. Resolution will be determined by official congressional records at Congress.gov.

Background

On May 14, 2025, Shri Thanedar brought forward 7 articles of impeachment, arguing Trump has committed obstruction of justice, bribery and corruption. The House voted 237-140 to shelve Green's impeachment resolution in December 2025, suggesting a shift in support for bringing charges of impeachment against Trump among House Democrats. At that time both the House and Senate were controlled by Republicans.

Considerations

Donald Trump is the only person to have been impeached multiple times. In 8 of 22 total presidential impeachments, two-thirds of the Senate voted to convict. Removal requires overcoming significant partisan polarization, as at one point, 12 Republican senators had individually indicated a willingness to take action against Trump's presidency; if supported by all 48 Democratic senators, 8 more Republican senators would be needed to successfully remove the president.