Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?

Question

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives, and also removed from the office of the US presidency.

For that to happen, the House of Representatives would need to pass articles of impeachment, and the Senate would need to vote to convict Donald Trump by 2/3rds majority. A vote to convict immediately removes the President.

This question resolves NO if impeachment and removal does not occur and it is 21 Jan 2029, or if Donald Trump ceases to be US President for other reasons (e.g. death, resignation).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (77 traders, as of May 12, 2026).