Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?
15
1kṀ1946
2030
81%
chance

Will the first successful landing of a Starship on Mars carry a useful payload?

Successful landing means intact enough to transmit from the surface.

Useful payload includes things like a demonstration rover, a test factory to produce sample quantities of propellant, any cargo intended for use by later missions, or instruments of scientific value.

Not counted is engineering data from the ship itself, for example cameras or sensors that return data about how the reentry and landing went.

Close date will be extended as needed. If the Starship program is replaced by a similar large reusable rocket successor program, this question will track that instead. Resolves No if the Starship program is cancelled without a clear similar successor program.

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