Tests, accidental detonations, and peaceful nuclear explosions are not included. During 2024, UTC time.
The weapon must detonate to be included.
This question is a draft; exact details of edge cases are still being worked out. Suggestions and discussion of potential edge cases are very welcome. Hopefully those can be nailed down in the next couple of days and it won't matter much to the bets before then.
@jack I'm mostly inclined to agree; following intent is good in lots of ways. The downside is that attribution to the arsenal is likely to be far easier, with lower risk of resolving as [unattributed].
@Eliza Also I decided to offer loans to bet on this and related questions. Let me know if you want one! https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1193014085609078905
@Eliza United States, 1945. I'm not aware of any reason to think there have been any other candidates or even edge cases since. Base rates seem to be fairly low.
I would personally be shocked if anything on this list resolves Yes without something like /jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4 also resolving Yes. (Caveat for slightly different date ranges; that market includes the remainder of 2023, this one does not.) Presumably this is an arbitrage opportunity. Ditto for /YoaaauuIohheee/will-any-country-use-a-nuclear-weap .
To state some of those edge cases explicitly: it's possible a nuclear weapon gets used offensively without causing a fatality. It's possible something misresolves or we have slightly different definitions of "use" vs. "use offensively". It's possible that cases like a launch and successful missile intercept without nuclear detonation cause weird resolutions.