What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
23
88
Ṁ1.9kṀ1.4k
2070
1D
1W
1M
ALL
61%
North Korea
13%
Russia
4%
Iran
4%
Pakistan
4%
China
3%
The United States
3%
India
3%
Israel
2%
Not a country
1%
Saudi Arabia
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)
The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by North Korea. North Korea is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
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@StevenK I've added a "not a country" answer that would cover all 3 of those things. (Unless SpaceX was doing it in close cooperation with the US government, or ISIS was being secretly backed by some other country's government, etc.)
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