What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon? | Manifold

What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?

40

1.4kṀ2603

2070

33%

North Korea

28%

Israel

19%

The United States

10%

Other

7%

Pakistan

2%

Russia

This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)

The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.

For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by North Korea. North Korea is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)

When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?

Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?

What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?

The next country to be nuked:

What country will the third nuclear weapon used in combat hit?

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

Sort by:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-conducts-test-underwater-nuclear-weapons-system-kcna-2024-01-19/

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban.amp

This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)

How does it resolve if it's a group that isn't a country, like ISIS or SpaceX? What if it's an AI that hacks an existing nuclear arsenal, or builds a new one?

@StevenK I've added a "not a country" answer that would cover all 3 of those things. (Unless SpaceX was doing it in close cooperation with the US government, or ISIS was being secretly backed by some other country's government, etc.)

@IsaacKing Just read it appears a test is imminent.

People are also trading

What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)

When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?

Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?

What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?

The next country to be nuked:

What country will the third nuclear weapon used in combat hit?

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

Related questions

What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)

When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?

Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?

What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?

The next country to be nuked:

What country will the third nuclear weapon used in combat hit?

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy