What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
32
1.4kṀ20872070
59%
North Korea
15%
Russia
8%
Iran
7%
The United States
4%
Israel
3%
China
1.7%
India
1.5%
Pakistan
1%
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)
The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by North Korea. North Korea is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@StevenK I've added a "not a country" answer that would cover all 3 of those things. (Unless SpaceX was doing it in close cooperation with the US government, or ISIS was being secretly backed by some other country's government, etc.)
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the next country to come into possession of a nuclear weapon?
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
9% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
What country will the third nuclear weapon used in combat hit?
What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
Which nation will conduct a full scale nuclear test in 2024?