What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Basic
28
Ṁ19802070
57%
North Korea
38%
Russia
1.1%
Iran
1%
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)
The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by North Korea. North Korea is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@StevenK I've added a "not a country" answer that would cover all 3 of those things. (Unless SpaceX was doing it in close cooperation with the US government, or ISIS was being secretly backed by some other country's government, etc.)
Related questions
Related questions
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
10% chance
What will be the next country to come into possession of a nuclear weapon?
Which country will detonate the first nuclear weapon before 2025? (tests included)
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
Where will the next nuclear detonation occur?
Which nation will conduct a full scale nuclear test in 2024?
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
15% chance
Which country will conduct a nuclear weapons test during 2024?
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2024?