What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
40
1.4kṀ26562070
33%
North Korea
20%
The United States
17%
15%
Israel
8%
Pakistan
4%
Russia
3%
Iran
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)
The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by North Korea. North Korea is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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