Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Question

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.

This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:

Revolution

Civil war

Military coup

Voluntary abdication of power

Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority

To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.

Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:

The core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND

The regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population

Example of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (1,969 traders, as of Oct 3, 2026).