How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)
10
300Ṁ1089Nov 4
0.6%
0 - 2
1.4%
3 - 5
1.9%
6 - 7
2%
8 - 9
6%
10
88%
11
As of question writing, these are the 11 states that are listed as "safe" or "solid" Republican seats on Wikipedia by all four ratings columns.
How many of them will the Republicans actually win?
Based on a consensus of credible reporting, or certified results if consensus reporting is not available prior to that. Counting independent senators who have announced they intend to caucus with the Republicans.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
70% chance
Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?
37% chance
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
How many "safe" Senate seats will the Democrats win in 2026? (CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA)
7.35
Will Democrats or Republicans win a majority in the senate in 2026?
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
Democrats win at least one of Ohio/Iowa/Alaska Senate seats?
67% chance
How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?
How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?