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MANIFOLD
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
60
Ṁ10kṀ52k
Nov 9
99%
At least 44
99%
At least 45
99%
At least 46
99%
At least 47
99%
At least 48
99%
At least 49
99%
At least 50
99%
At least 51
99%
At least 52
99%
At least 53
99%
At least 54
95%
At least 55

This is a duplicate of this market but modified to be cumulative-set instead of single-answer: https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/how-many-seats-will-the-democrats-h

Resolution will be based on how that market is resolved.

This is the description of that market at the time of market creation: "I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027. If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution. Independents will count towards the party they caucus with. Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them."

Regardless of what happens, this market will resolve as that market does but in a cumulative fashion (i.e. if the other market resolves 50, then this market will resolve YES for all options up to 50, and no from 51 onwards).

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Never would I have expected in my wildest imagination 3 months ago all of this would be YES

Extended the close date, good market to watch as the results come in!

Time to add at least 54?

@EvanDaniel Oh, I just realized this market has add answers turned off. Ah well. That 13% at the top end is high enough to be interesting!

@Tripping would you like to add more answers? The setting allows you to