Will all 18 "safe" Senate seats be won by their incumbent parties?

Question

7 Democratic safe seats: CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA

11 Republican ones: AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY

Resolution exactly according to these markets (7 and 11 buckets, respectively):

@/EvanDaniel/how-many-safe-senate-seats-will-the

@/EvanDaniel/how-many-safe-senate-seats-will-rep

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 78% chance (27 traders, as of Aug 13, 2026).