How many "safe" Senate seats will the Democrats win in 2026? (CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA)
8
Ṁ400Ṁ1.6kNov 5
7.15 seats
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.4%
0
0.3%
1
3%
2
3%
3
0.5%
4
0.9%
5
0.6%
6
91%
7
As of question writing, these are the 7 states that are listed as "safe" or "solid" Democratic seats on Wikipedia by all four ratings columns.
How many of them will the Democrats actually win?
Based on a consensus of credible reporting, or certified results if consensus reporting is not available prior to that. Counting independent senators who have announced they intend to caucus with the Democrats.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@adele I don't know. I think Manifold makes odd assumptions about the range, and I'm not sure why or if there's a way to fix that at question creation time.
People are also trading
Related questions
Democratic odds of senate control on Tuesday November 4 2026?
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)
How many "safe" House seats will flip in 2026?
In which election cycle will Democrats next win control of the Senate?
Will Democrats win any of Alaska, Iowa, or Ohio in the Senate races this year?
76% chance
Will Democrats or Republicans win a majority in the senate in 2026?
What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
How many of these democrats will be elected senators in November?
If Democrats win the senate in the 2026 midterms, which seats did they win?