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Putin is older (age 70) than Prigozhin (age 62), so based on actuarial tables alone Prigozhin has a stronger chance of lasting longer than Putin does. That said, based on the Wagner Group incident, I would guess that maybe a third of the timelines end with Prigozhin being assassinated by Putin-backed mercenaries before the former has a chance to die a natural death.

@duck_master yes. I'd expect Putin has better medical care. Compared to living in the field.

@duck_master I don't think "quality of medical care" is a huge factor. If they both die of old age I'd expect prig to be a heavy favorite (the odds of both dying of old age are probably well under 100% but I think they're underestimated - most Soviet and Russian leaders did actually manage that).