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@MrLuke255 Can you please resolve this market? Thank you!

I will use some time on the weekend to research if there are any "reasonable doubts"

Any updates on this? I don't think there are currently any reputable news sources disputing his death, and certainly any theories that it didn't happen are nothing more than speculation. So based on the resolution criteria in the description, it should resolve YES at the end of the year unless something very bizarre happens.

he's everywhere:
Wagner warlord Prigozhin 'is alive and hiding out on a Caribbean island called Margarita', claims Russian analyst | The US Sun (the-sun.com)

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10161320809198735&set=a.10150101502838735

These articles aren't going to stop the rumours that's for sure.
Late Russian mercenary Prigozhin spoke about his security in newly surfaced video | Reuters

Kremlin says two versions of Prigozhin's death are being 'considered' | CTV News

Russia says no to international probe into Prigozhin crash – POLITICO

@higherLEVELING We have until the end of the year. And rumors aren't necessarily grounds for "reasonable doubt".

See Prigozhin's heavily guarded burial site | CNN

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12456817/amp/Prigozhin-alive-plotting-revenge-Putin.html

Prigozhin is alive and plotting revenge on Putin, analyst claims

Prigozhin is 'alive, well, and free' in an unnamed country, according to Dr Valery Solovey, even as Russia stages his funeral which Vladimir Putin is refusing to attend.

https://metro.co.uk/2023/08/29/russian-conspiracy-theorist-claims-prigozhin-is-alive-and-plotting-revenge-19414019/

Russian conspiracy theorist makes wild claim about Wagner chief's 'revenge'

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is ‘alive, well, and free’ – and plotting his revenge, a Russian analyst has sensationally claimed.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/02/18/the-professor-and-his-prophecies

The professor and his prophecies Known for peddling wild conspiracy theories, Valery Solovey is now wrapped up in a felony hate speech investigation — Meduza

On Wednesday, February 16, law enforcement officers raided the Moscow home of political analyst Valery Solovey. Solovey and his son Pavel were then taken to the Russian Investigative Committee for questioning. As it turns out, Solovey is considered a witness in a criminal investigation into felony hate speech. Solovey and his son were released late Wednesday evening after being questioned. According to unofficial reports, the felony investigation is connected to an anonymous Telegram account called “SVR General” — allegedly, Solovey may have been involved in creating content for this channel, which regularly criticizes the Russian authorities. Meduza recounts how Valery Solovey, a former professor at Moscow’s prestigious MGIMO University, became an extravagant political commentator known for his colorful (and increasingly wild) conspiracy theories.

@MrLuke255 Does he show anything or give any reason why he's thinking this? He says it was a body double, but doesn't say how or why he thinks that.

The only thing i can think of that would make sense is that he knows that it was a body double that was on the plane because he IS also a body double for Prigozhin. They have same build, body type, egg shape head...

Imagine both wearing sunglasses. Could not tell them apart.

@higherLEVELING That's an interesting theory!

@MrLuke255 I don't think, "There are conspiracy theories saying that he's not really dead," should be considered reasonable doubt, though. The entire reason the "beyond reasonable doubt" standard exists is because it's always possible to come up with some conspiracy theory for why things didn't happen the way we think they did.

@JosephNoonan I've never said it is enough to resolve the market as NO. But there might be more in the future.

Is there really any more doubt?

@RichardAnderson What makes you think that there isn't? Do we have anything more than claims from Russian authorities? I set such a distant resolution date for a reason

@MrLuke255 Could you please give more concrete resolution criteria? I fully understand that it can be hard to define but Putin has no incentive to say he is dead but let him go free and possibly turn up again.

@RichardAnderson Does this sound concrete enough?

"Market resolves as YES if there are no sources other than speculation for Prigozhin being alive or having been killed in any other way than a plane crash until the end of 2023, otherwise NO. If it becomes clear that that market was resolved incorrectly as YES after the end of 2023, it should be re-resolved."

@RichardAnderson The same could be said about the invasion in the Ukraine. It's a mess and definitely haven't worked according to Putin's plan

@MrLuke255
Perhaps I'm just tired but I had to read that several times to understand it. The following might be better worded. Perhaps sources should be well defined such as naming a few reputable news sources.
"Market resolves as YES if there is still only speculation by sources that Prigozhin is alive or has been killed in any a way other than a plane crash by the end of 2023, otherwise NO. If it becomes clear that that market was resolved incorrectly as YES after the end of 2023, it should be re-resolved."

@RichardAnderson This sounds better, you're right. I'm not a native English speaker.

I wouldn't want to restrict it too much. How do you feel about defining a reputable news source as any national media of the EU or EEA member state with an addition of the UK to include BBC?

@MrLuke255

That works perfectly fine. While you could certainly be either really restrictive (EX: it can ONLY be the BBC, Guardian, or Reuters), it's far better that it just be as you describe and you use your own common sense judgement to make the easy distinction to crackpot 'new evidence' and everything else.

Do you wish to resolve it so that if by 2023, we have new pieces of evidence that have introduced significant doubt but have not been resolved then YES?

For example:

If news sources are still speculating based on the same facts we know right now at the end of 2023 then NO.
OR
If a new source(s) have reported new evidence which introduces significant doubt and this doubt hasn't been resolved in favour of the current theory (plane crash) by end of 2023 then YES

@RichardAnderson I don't know which would work better... I'm not sure if it was really highly speculated in a reputable source that he might be alive resolving the market would make sense. In such a case this market could get more traffic and might be better to extend it rather than resolving YES and then re-resolving NO. What do you think?

@MrLuke255

You've set it till 2024 and while you haven't described it as such elsewhere, it's reasonable to assume traders are trading based off the resolution being in 2024. This means it's better to explicity confirm that it's until 2024 rather than changing the date. If you want a different market with a longer timeline, it's probably better to create a new one and clarify this one to be until 2024.

I'm not familiar with Manifold culture so I don't know whether I'm making correct assumptions though.

Ultimately, I don't think there is a reasonable doubt that he's alive and this is demonstrated by the how other prediction markets and our's are trading. I have a more nuanced argument but I'm just about to head off to sleep.

@RichardAnderson Ok, I won't change the resolution date. Have a good sleep!

I've updated the description. Let me know if something else isn't clear