Will it be confirmed that Prigozhin was killed in the plane crash beyond a reasonable doubt?
70
859
1.3k
resolved Jan 18
Resolved
YES

I'm not yet sure how to confirm or deny that, but my feeling is when something like this happens in Russia, conspiracy should not be ruled out.

Market resolves as YES if there is still only speculation by sources that Prigozhin is alive or has been killed in any a way other than a plane crash by the end of 2023, otherwise NO. If it becomes clear that that market was resolved incorrectly as YES after the end of 2023, it should be re-resolved.

Market close date will not be changed. If at the end of 2023 any of the reputable news sources will be openly disputing Prigozhin's death (or the cause of his death), this market will resolve YES. You may try to convince me that I shouldn't consider the source, for example if you will be able to undermine its credibility. If the market will be resolved NO and after some time Prigoshin is known to have lived before the end of 2023, this question should be re-resolved as NO.

I define reputable news source as any national media of the EU or EEA member state with an addition of the UK to include BBC.

Just to clarify: the question is, of course, about the leader of the Wagner Group, not some other person with the same name.

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@MrLuke255 Can you please resolve this market? Thank you!

I will use some time on the weekend to research if there are any "reasonable doubts"

bought Ṁ400 of YES

Any updates on this? I don't think there are currently any reputable news sources disputing his death, and certainly any theories that it didn't happen are nothing more than speculation. So based on the resolution criteria in the description, it should resolve YES at the end of the year unless something very bizarre happens.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING We have until the end of the year. And rumors aren't necessarily grounds for "reasonable doubt".

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 Does he show anything or give any reason why he's thinking this? He says it was a body double, but doesn't say how or why he thinks that.

The only thing i can think of that would make sense is that he knows that it was a body double that was on the plane because he IS also a body double for Prigozhin. They have same build, body type, egg shape head...

Imagine both wearing sunglasses. Could not tell them apart.

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING That's an interesting theory!

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 I don't think, "There are conspiracy theories saying that he's not really dead," should be considered reasonable doubt, though. The entire reason the "beyond reasonable doubt" standard exists is because it's always possible to come up with some conspiracy theory for why things didn't happen the way we think they did.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan I've never said it is enough to resolve the market as NO. But there might be more in the future.

predicted YES

Is there really any more doubt?

predicted NO

@RichardAnderson What makes you think that there isn't? Do we have anything more than claims from Russian authorities? I set such a distant resolution date for a reason

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 Could you please give more concrete resolution criteria? I fully understand that it can be hard to define but Putin has no incentive to say he is dead but let him go free and possibly turn up again.

predicted NO

@RichardAnderson Does this sound concrete enough?

"Market resolves as YES if there are no sources other than speculation for Prigozhin being alive or having been killed in any other way than a plane crash until the end of 2023, otherwise NO. If it becomes clear that that market was resolved incorrectly as YES after the end of 2023, it should be re-resolved."

@RichardAnderson The same could be said about the invasion in the Ukraine. It's a mess and definitely haven't worked according to Putin's plan

predicted YES

@MrLuke255
Perhaps I'm just tired but I had to read that several times to understand it. The following might be better worded. Perhaps sources should be well defined such as naming a few reputable news sources.
"Market resolves as YES if there is still only speculation by sources that Prigozhin is alive or has been killed in any a way other than a plane crash by the end of 2023, otherwise NO. If it becomes clear that that market was resolved incorrectly as YES after the end of 2023, it should be re-resolved."

predicted NO

@RichardAnderson This sounds better, you're right. I'm not a native English speaker.

I wouldn't want to restrict it too much. How do you feel about defining a reputable news source as any national media of the EU or EEA member state with an addition of the UK to include BBC?

predicted YES

@MrLuke255

That works perfectly fine. While you could certainly be either really restrictive (EX: it can ONLY be the BBC, Guardian, or Reuters), it's far better that it just be as you describe and you use your own common sense judgement to make the easy distinction to crackpot 'new evidence' and everything else.

Do you wish to resolve it so that if by 2023, we have new pieces of evidence that have introduced significant doubt but have not been resolved then YES?

For example:

If news sources are still speculating based on the same facts we know right now at the end of 2023 then NO.
OR
If a new source(s) have reported new evidence which introduces significant doubt and this doubt hasn't been resolved in favour of the current theory (plane crash) by end of 2023 then YES

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@RichardAnderson I don't know which would work better... I'm not sure if it was really highly speculated in a reputable source that he might be alive resolving the market would make sense. In such a case this market could get more traffic and might be better to extend it rather than resolving YES and then re-resolving NO. What do you think?

predicted YES

@MrLuke255

You've set it till 2024 and while you haven't described it as such elsewhere, it's reasonable to assume traders are trading based off the resolution being in 2024. This means it's better to explicity confirm that it's until 2024 rather than changing the date. If you want a different market with a longer timeline, it's probably better to create a new one and clarify this one to be until 2024.

I'm not familiar with Manifold culture so I don't know whether I'm making correct assumptions though.

Ultimately, I don't think there is a reasonable doubt that he's alive and this is demonstrated by the how other prediction markets and our's are trading. I have a more nuanced argument but I'm just about to head off to sleep.

predicted NO

@RichardAnderson Ok, I won't change the resolution date. Have a good sleep!

predicted NO

I've updated the description. Let me know if something else isn't clear

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