98
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2051
70%
chance

Resolves YES if Biden dies first
Resolves NO if Putin dies first

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predicts NO

President of the wealthiest nation to ever exist ✅

Has unlimited access to adrenochrome ✅

Former president is 98 and looks like a zombie but the woke state is keeping him alive indefinitely ✅

Vs

President of a failing state with worse health outcomes than most of Europe and a former ally in rebellion

predicts YES

Biden is ̶8̶6̶ 80, Putin is 70. I guess it's possible someone could get rid of Putin but given his popular support and his control over Russia I doubt it.

@ShadowyZephyr Biden is 80

@ShadowyZephyr And still has longer life expectancy than Putin at 70 who has already outlived his.

@ShadowyZephyr Sparingly few Russian men make it to 70.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@BTE 1. Average US life expectancy for men = 73, russia = 64, Biden has outlived his by more.

Edit: I found stats by gender, so yes, Putin has outlived his, so has Biden.

2. The gap in life expectancy is orimarily because the US has easier access to advanced medical treatments and food options. Access doesn't matter when you're an autocrat ruling your country, you can buy whatever you want.

As for the stories about Putin's health, I'm doubtful about them. Western media loves to spin up nonsense to make Russia and China look bad. Some of it is true, most of it isn't.

Even the CIA's director is saying Putin is fine right now.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/cia-director-burns-putin-is-entirely-too-healthy-despite-rumors-of-decline/vi-AAZPzD8?ocid=spartandhp%2Cspartandhp

@ShadowyZephyr Well not exactly. The life expectancy changes when you pass the average. For example, as you approach 100 your life expectancy starts getting longer! Check out the actuarial tables.

predicts YES

@BTE what? if you go to https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1 (which I think is for the US) you can see your probability of death within 1 year increases as you get older, besides the first couple years.

predicts YES

@BTE I... think you're misinterpreting what this means. The amount of years left to live is still decreasing with age, and the probability of death increases. Obviously people who live long are more likely to live longer rather than dying immediately, so yes, their expectancy increases, but it doesn't mean their probability of death is going DOWN each year (the only way Biden would have a longer expectancy than Putin ignoring Russia/US difference), that would be absurd.

And, the title says, "people who survive to age 65 are continuing to live longer than their parents."
It's comparing to previous generations. Not really relevant to this question at all.

@ShadowyZephyr Yes the Stanford article says that, the chart is what I was talking about. I definitely never said anything about their probability of death, I said life expectancy adjusted for age and really should include other factors like where they are. I said once you pass the average it changes and it continues to change non linearly from then on.

There are people who have their life expectancy get longer as they get older are people who emigrate to healthier communities or like lose 100 lbs doing hot yoga and triathlons. Or being a soldier still standing at the end of a major battle, prime time rapid fluxuations in life expectancy. Lol. This is funny.

What is the difference in likelihood either is assassinated? Probably WAY higher for Putin, no?

predicts YES

@BTE Assassination is higher for Putin but not so high that this should be below 50%.


Also, if you're simply talking about how people who live longer don't tend to die immediately upon reaching the average life expectancy and do live longer, then, I don't see how that's releavnt.

Putin is still ̶1̶6̶ 10 years younger than Biden, and the Russia-US difference doesn't matter because they both have access to top tier medical care and food (although Biden doesn't eat healthily anyway)

There have been rumors about Putin's health since 2012, none of which have surfaced into anything concrete.

@ShadowyZephyr No Putin is 10 YEARS YOUNGER. That was my first reply. You have Biden’s age wrong by 6 years. He is 80.

predicts YES

@BTE Oops, my mistake. Doesn't change any of my points though

@ShadowyZephyr No worries. And for the record I absolutely think Putin will live longer than Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden dies in office.

@ShadowyZephyr It does change it because it puts them both about the same amount past their individual life expectancy, instead of Biden being well past it already if he was 86.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

@BTE I just said that Biden outlived his by longer, which is still true by about a year. But again, I don't think the US-Russia difference really matters here.

@ShadowyZephyr I haven’t even bet in this market yet I just realized.

@ShadowyZephyr It actually really shows the power of the office that Biden can’t be stopped from running again even though it’s so obviously not the best option. He isn’t needed to beat trump anymore. But he is the big cheese and he makes the decisions. Jill really let us down on this one.

@ShadowyZephyr According to the Social Security Administration (SSA) “Cohort Life Expectancy” table, a male born in 1942 (Biden’s birth year) had a life expectancy at birth of 71.1 years. Of course, males born today have a much longer life expectancy, 82.3 years. But the longer a person lives, the longer he or she is expected to survive. For example, SSA estimates that a male born in 1942 who reached the age of 65 can, on average, expect to live another 12.8 years, which for Biden would take him to the age of 84 — about the middle of his second term.

In the news today.

predicts NO

The number of elites in Russia that hate Putin seems too high for Putin to be sleeping well at night.

I don't think Putin can remain alive and not be in power, so if the last week is any indication his life expectancy is dwindling.

predicts YES

@BTE Even conditional on regime change I think there’s less than a 25% chance they execute Putin. There hasn’t been any capital punishment in Russia since 1996

@JonathanRay Dude, the Wagner group uses sledgehammers and it’s extrajudicial my man.

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