When will Putin die?
Plus
31
Ṁ39342034
6%
Before 2026
10%
Before 2027
14%
Before 2028
19%
Before 2029
25%
Before 2030
29%
Before 2031
34%
Before 2032
40%
Before 2033
46%
Before 2034
51%
Before 2035
55%
Before 2036
57%
Before 2037
57%
Before 2038
58%
Before 2039
61%
Before 2040
Resolved
NOBefore 2025
The market will resolve positively as soon as there are credible news of Vladimir Putin dying (from natural causes or otherwise).
The option "Before X" will resolve negatively if Russian state TV broadcasts Putin's New Year address for the year X and there is no significant controversy regarding it being being fake (AI-generated, double etc.) If in a given year Putin doesn't deliver the New Year address or it is difficult to ascertain its authenticity, the option will resolve negatively as soon as Putin makes a public appearance in the new year.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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