When will Putin die?
Plus
26
Ṁ30672034
2%
Before 2025
7%
Before 2026
19%
Before 2027
29%
Before 2028
30%
Before 2029
31%
Before 2030
33%
Before 2031
34%
Before 2032
35%
Before 2033
41%
Before 2034
47%
Before 2035
48%
Before 2036
49%
Before 2037
51%
Before 2038
52%
Before 2039
57%
Before 2040
The market will resolve positively as soon as there are credible news of Vladimir Putin dying (from natural causes or otherwise).
The option "Before X" will resolve negatively if Russian state TV broadcasts Putin's New Year address for the year X and there is no significant controversy regarding it being being fake (AI-generated, double etc.) If in a given year Putin doesn't deliver the New Year address or it is difficult to ascertain its authenticity, the option will resolve negatively as soon as Putin makes a public appearance in the new year.
I do not bet on my own questions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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