The market will resolve positively as soon as there are credible news of Vladimir Putin dying (from natural causes or otherwise).

The option "Before X" will resolve negatively if Russian state TV broadcasts Putin's New Year address for the year X and there is no significant controversy regarding it being being fake (AI-generated, double etc.) If in a given year Putin doesn't deliver the New Year address or it is difficult to ascertain its authenticity, the option will resolve negatively as soon as Putin makes a public appearance in the new year.

I do not bet on my own questions.