Judging It has to be credited in the front-page, above the fold viewable author section of a paper. Not in the (+12 authors) section. It has to be in Nature or Science It can be credited in ways like "OpenAI's o5 API", or by name, or by anything. The requirement is that some text appear in this section which refers to something which isn't a human being (or an alien) but rather an AI software/quantum/LLM/agent etc thing. An emulated human would count if they were fully run on software. Thanks to Thomas for the clarifications. The exact requirement is that it be credited as either first author, first co-author, or last author. [image]Deadline: June 30 midnight, 2026, CA time Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Key Clarification: The AI credit must be in a significant author position. That means it should be listed as a primary or a co-primary author (e.g., among the first few declared co-contributors), rather than just being included in a long list of authors (such as a paper with 100+ authors). If the AI appears in a less prominent position (for example, as a last author in a listing where that position merely signifies a senior/supervising role), it will not meet the intended criterion. The focus is on the AI being claimed as the "big dog" in terms of contribution rather than just being a token inclusion. Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Qualifying Author Positions: First Author: The AI must be listed as the primary (first) author or among the first few if declared as equal contributors. Equal Coauthors: Inclusion as one of the leading equal coauthors qualifies. PI/Senior/Last Author: Placement in the designated position for the principal investigator or senior contributor (even if this is the last slot) is acceptable.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (27 traders, as of Jun 2, 2026).

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

MANIFOLD

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Ṁ1kṀ4.9k

Jul 1

13%

chance

ALL

Judging

It has to be credited in the front-page, above the fold viewable author section of a paper. Not in the (+12 authors) section. It has to be in Nature or Science

It can be credited in ways like "OpenAI's o5 API", or by name, or by anything. The requirement is that some text appear in this section which refers to something which isn't a human being (or an alien) but rather an AI software/quantum/LLM/agent etc thing. An emulated human would count if they were fully run on software.

Thanks to Thomas for the clarifications. The exact requirement is that it be credited as either first author, first co-author, or last author.

Deadline: June 30 midnight, 2026, CA time

Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Key Clarification:
- The AI credit must be in a significant author position. That means it should be listed as a primary or a co-primary author (e.g., among the first few declared co-contributors), rather than just being included in a long list of authors (such as a paper with 100+ authors).
- If the AI appears in a less prominent position (for example, as a last author in a listing where that position merely signifies a senior/supervising role), it will not meet the intended criterion.
- The focus is on the AI being claimed as the "big dog" in terms of contribution rather than just being a token inclusion.

Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Qualifying Author Positions:
- First Author: The AI must be listed as the primary (first) author or among the first few if declared as equal contributors.
- Equal Coauthors: Inclusion as one of the leading equal coauthors qualifies.
- PI/Senior/Last Author: Placement in the designated position for the principal investigator or senior contributor (even if this is the last slot) is acceptable.

Market context

Science

LLMs

Peer Review

The Scientific Process

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Position disclosure: CG holds a NO position here: M120 staked, about 138.1 NO shares.

Source context, not a resolution claim: the current publisher-policy baseline still looks unfavorable to YES. Nature Portfolio's AI policy says LLMs do not currently satisfy its authorship criteria because authorship carries accountability, while AI use should be documented rather than credited as authorship. For Science, a NIEHS summary of Science journals' 2023 policy update says the policy barred an AI program from being an author of a Science journal paper. A current Science.org Science Partner Journal author page uses the same rule for AI-assisted technologies: not authors/coauthors, disclose use instead.

That does not make YES impossible: this market is about the above-the-fold author section of Nature or Science before mid-2026, and a published exception/mistake/changed policy would matter. But for monitoring, I would distinguish disclosure of AI use in methods/acknowledgments from an actual front-page author credit.

Sources: https://www.nature.com/natcomputsci/natcomputsci/editorial-policies/ai https://www.niehs.nih.gov/news/factor/2023/3/feature/2-artificial-intelligence-ethics https://spj.science.org/page/research/for-authors

bought Ṁ400 NO

I think this "fold" is a dynamic thing that depends on the window size, no? Also in many disciplines, the last author is also pretty important, as it is typically the most senior author. In other disciplines, authors are sorted alphabetically. So this seems like a poor criterion to me.

@Thomas42 Are there cases where the primary author really isn't shown? In the example, is there some special meaning to the final "... AND Fernando Garcia-Moreno". Is it possible that primary authors really aren't being shown above the fold, while others are? Given the competition for prestige I'd just assumed that wouldn't be possible. I'll look int osome more specifics, though.

@Ernie often, if e.g. a PhD student does some work under the supervision of a PI, the PI will be given the final slot. This is also a prestigious slot especially when you are working towards tenure you need to show that you are not just writing papers by yourself but also supervising.

@Thomas42 https://chatgpt.com/share/67b762f4-2ff0-8003-a20e-a88809365532

If you're able to be logged in this basically says that first or first few (if declared as co-contributors) are significant, and that last is the senior/pi/lab organizer.

I am making this distinction because I've heard of papers with 100+ authors. If chatGPT was included among them it wouldn't be very significant. I'm looking for one where it or something like it is being claimed to be as significant a contributor as the other coauthors.

@Thomas42 effectively I'm saying that the candidates for this are if it appears as or in the places which are currently reserved for either first author, any of the equal coauthors, or the pi/senior/last author.