There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027 | Manifold

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

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I'd like a little expansion on judging criteria for this one, even if it's just a general approach rather than a specific benchmark

How is this measured? How better e.g. Is GPT-4 from GPT-3.5?

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Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?

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Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

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Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

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