There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030 | Manifold

There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

14

1kṀ374

2030

83%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

i.e. a service where if you agree, you will promise that in the event of a dispute, you and others will submit information to an LLM/AI system for evaluation of the dispute.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Will somebody build it? Yep. Will it be good? Probably not the first one, at least.

https://x.com/gallabytes/status/1822020815287939567

follow me for ideas which become future startups

If there is a company offering such a service prior to 2030 and it fails completely and burns to the ground, would this resolve YES since the service was offered?

predictedYES

@whenhaveiever yes as long as it was a real service it would count

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench

Using LLMs for legal arbitration - this seems like a great idea (although potentially could go wrong). A good enough AI could be more trustworthy than humans. #ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/there-will-be-a-company-which-offer https://t.co/FOugagwVi8

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Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?

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Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025?

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