There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

1kṀ374

2030

83%

chance

ALL

i.e. a service where if you agree, you will promise that in the event of a dispute, you and others will submit information to an LLM/AI system for evaluation of the dispute.

Legal Decisions

Collective Intelligence

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

44% chance

An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027

39% chance

Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

67% chance

Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

17% chance

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

31% chance

Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025?

Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ10 YES

Will somebody build it? Yep. Will it be good? Probably not the first one, at least.

https://x.com/gallabytes/status/1822020815287939567

follow me for ideas which become future startups

If there is a company offering such a service prior to 2030 and it fails completely and burns to the ground, would this resolve YES since the service was offered?

predictedYES

@whenhaveiever yes as long as it was a real service it would count

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench

Using LLMs for legal arbitration - this seems like a great idea (although potentially could go wrong). A good enough AI could be more trustworthy than humans. #ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/there-will-be-a-company-which-offer https://t.co/FOugagwVi8