Will Fordow be put out of commission by the end ofJuly? (Israel-Iran Conflict)
236
1kṀ120k
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if at the end of July, to my judgment, the consensus of reporting indicates that it is more likely than not that the Iranian nuclear site of Fordow has been put out of commission, through air strikes, sabotage, etc.

Inspired by @PeterWildeford ’s blog post:

https://open.substack.com/pub/peterwildeford/p/the-fordow-paradox-where-do-iran?r=19iisj&utm_medium=ios

and reporting from mainstream media such as Axios:

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/14/iran-nuclear-facilities-fordow-israel-strike

  • Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A commitment or deal to put Fordow out of commission is not sufficient for a YES resolution. There must be consensus reporting that the site is actually out of commission (e.g. "Fordow has halted centrifuges and is under UN monitoring currently").

  • Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A distinction is made between the plant being out of commission versus being temporarily paused during negotiations.

    • An example of what would likely resolve YES is reporting that it is “confirmed by UN inspectors that no enrichment is currently taking place”.

    • An example of what would resolve NO is reporting that “Iran has said they will pause enrichment while brokering a ceasefire”.

  • Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a potential deal for Iran to dismantle the facility, the creator clarified:

    • There would be a high bar for a YES resolution in such a scenario.

    • A deal to stop using or dismantle the facility is not sufficient on its own.

    • Resolution requires literal reporting that the facility has been decommissioned.

  • Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they cannot extend the market.

The resolution will be based strictly on the consensus of reporting at the end of July, and will not consider information that becomes available after that date.

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From the description:

"Resolves YES if at the end of July, to my judgment, the consensus of reporting indicates that it is more likely than not that the Iranian nuclear site of Fordow has been put out of commission, through air strikes, sabotage, etc."

I think it's more likely than not that Fordow has been put out of commission.

"US officials believe it has been set back by 2 years"

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-strikes-destroyed-only-one-three-iranian-nuclear-sites-nbc-news-reports-2025-07-17/

"Badly damaged... probably crippling Iran's ability... for years to come"

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html

There is evidence to the contrary but I think it is more weak. Namely:

"Satellite imagery shows renewed activities at the location." This doesn't really indicate that it's not out of commission.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/412399

"There were initial reports that Iran managed to move out most of the enriched uranium." Again, the site could still be destroyed even if Iran salvaged things of value from it.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-really-happened-to-fordow-three-possible-futures-for-irans-nuclear-program-after-us-strikes

@bens Since the evidence basically amounts to "the US says so", and the US has a vested interest in claiming that, I think it's very, very weak, especially considering what we know about the munitions' capabilities and the location's geology.

That said, the resolution criterion was "to my judgment", so, fair enough.

@AlexandreK ya, I mean, my true credence on whether the damage at Fordow rises to the level of "out of commission" is probably at 80% or so, which clears the bar of "more likely than not" for me.

If full confirmation it isn’t out of commission isn’t out by August, this surely must resolve no, right?

@Magnify If what you mean by "full confirmation" is like, video from inside of inoperable centrifuges, then no, I don't think that's what's needed for Yes.

@Panfilo solid news/intelligence reporting at a minimum, which I have yet to see beyond biased speculation. I think the vision was it would be spoken about as part of some ceasefire/peace deal, but this has not happened either

@Magnify I would direct you both to the criteria:

"Resolves YES if at the end of July, to my judgment, the consensus of reporting indicates that it is more likely than not that the Iranian nuclear site of Fordow has been put out of commission, through air strikes, sabotage, etc."

@bens id point to this

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/7/18/new-reports-cast-doubt-on-impact-of-us-strikes-on-irans-nuclear-sites

But honestly if I were in your shoes I’d extend if I were able to. Under repairs means in commission, and it’s pretty impossible to assess from available factual information

Wikipedia also says damaged but not destroyed

@Magnify I cannot extend, the resolution criteria explicitly say that I will resolve based on the consensus of reporting at the end of July, not what happens after that.

@bens what if there is no reporting consensus?

@Magnify trusting Wikipedia and Al-Jazeera to report on anything Israel-related?..

@ICRainbow that is exactly my point, you gonna trust the NYT for the exact same reason?

@Magnify I wouldn't trust NYT for factual reporting on anything. But, yeah, the reason is the same - narratives instead of facts.

@ICRainbow yeah so many of these sources are the exact same. My other huge issue is that “out of commission” is a really high bar. “Damaged and under repairs” is not even close to out of commission, frankly even completely destroyed and under repair isn’t out of commission. If work is being done at fordow, it’s in commission and we have satellite imagery of work being done there right now, I’d rather that be used than “reporting consensus” lol

@Magnify that’s a totally reasonable thing to want a market for, it’s just not what this market is and not what people have been betting on.

So far, reporting is that Israeli intelligence or other biased actors are claiming that Fordow is out of commission. For the purpose of this market, are claims by a biased actor treated as fact?

@BrunoJ Wouldn’t Israel want another strike if the facility is still operable?

@ChadCotty What they say publicly is always whatever they want people to believe. They're an state intelligence agency... I wouldn't believe the CIA if they told me my shirt was inside out.

A 1st principles engineering analysis indicating Fordow is probably destroyed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3h_vnXc3PE

@PaulHabermas But see also: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/iran-nuclear-program-israel-damage-intelligence

“An Israeli official with direct knowledge of intelligence on Iran told Axios that intercepted communications suggest Iranian military officials have been giving false situation reports to the country's political leadership — downplaying the extent of the damage.”

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