Resolves YES if at the end of July, to my judgment, the consensus of reporting indicates that it is more likely than not that the Iranian nuclear site of Fordow has been put out of commission, through air strikes, sabotage, etc.
Inspired by @PeterWildeford ’s blog post:
and reporting from mainstream media such as Axios:
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/14/iran-nuclear-facilities-fordow-israel-strike
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A commitment or deal to put Fordow out of commission is not sufficient for a YES resolution. There must be consensus reporting that the site is actually out of commission (e.g. "Fordow has halted centrifuges and is under UN monitoring currently").
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A distinction is made between the plant being out of commission versus being temporarily paused during negotiations.
An example of what would likely resolve YES is reporting that it is “confirmed by UN inspectors that no enrichment is currently taking place”.
An example of what would resolve NO is reporting that “Iran has said they will pause enrichment while brokering a ceasefire”.
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a potential deal for Iran to dismantle the facility, the creator clarified:
There would be a high bar for a YES resolution in such a scenario.
A deal to stop using or dismantle the facility is not sufficient on its own.
Resolution requires literal reporting that the facility has been decommissioned.
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