State of Iran in 2030
17
Ṁ1kṀ4.7k2029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
Current regime in power, with nukes
24%
Current regime in power, no nukes
12%
Different regime in power, with nukes
55%
Different regime in power, no nukes
This question is basically a cross-product of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/ and https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO
Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will make no personal judgement calls on this market's resolution. It will be resolved strictly in line with the linked markets.
As a result, the creator has indicated they will be betting on this market themselves.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Probability Iran has nukes looks high in this market as compared with https://manifold.markets/benjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c or with https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
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