This question is basically a cross-product of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/ and https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will make no personal judgement calls on this market's resolution. It will be resolved strictly in line with the linked markets. As a result, the creator has indicated they will be betting on this market themselves.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Current regime in power, no nukes, followed by Current regime in power, with nukes and Different regime in power, no nukes are most likely. See the market for live updates (19 traders, as of Aug 1, 2026).

State of Iran in 2030

MANIFOLD

State of Iran in 2030

Ṁ1kṀ6.4k

2029

ALL

20%

Current regime in power, with nukes

56%

Current regime in power, no nukes

Different regime in power, with nukes

19%

Different regime in power, no nukes

This question is basically a cross-product of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/ and https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO

Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will make no personal judgement calls on this market's resolution. It will be resolved strictly in line with the linked markets.

As a result, the creator has indicated they will be betting on this market themselves.

Market context

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Probability Iran has nukes looks high in this market as compared with https://manifold.markets/benjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c or with https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

11% chance.

I have no intention of making any judgement calls on this market, as I will literally just be resolving it in line with the linked markets. I will therefore not refrain from betting on this market myself