Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Details:
The conflict must escalate into an all-out war, not merely limited military actions or isolated bombing rounds.
The situation should be recognized by the media, with consistent references to it as a war.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed the primary resolution criterion: the market will resolve YES if the international media consistently refers to the conflict as a war.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the media outlets that will be used for resolution. The market will resolve to YES if all of the following refer to the conflict as a war:
Haaretz
CNN
BBC
Al Jazeera
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I think this should resolve yes (disclaimer: I am a yes holder). The following media outlets have referred to this as a war (non-exhaustive list):
NY Times
The Economist
Reuters
The Atlantic [1]
Haaretz
Times of Israel [2]
Al Jazeera (inconsistently) [3]
The governments of both Israel and Iran have referred to it as a war, as has Trump.
Wikipedia also refers to it as a war [4]. There are other media sources listed on that article's "Talk" page under "It's War" [5]
I think there is more than enough evidence to resolve though obviously it is up to the market creator
[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/06/war-israel-was-ready-fight/683180/
[2] https://www.timesofisrael.com/news-you-can-use-five-practical-points-about-the-israel-iran-war/
[3] https://www.aljazeera.com/program/project-force-2/2025/6/16/iran-and-israels-long-range-war-2
[4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_%E2%80%93_Iran_war
[5] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Israel_%E2%80%93_Iran_war
Probably not a reputable source but Trump called it a war:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114683261634430212
@JoshCohen That is a step towards resolving YES, but I will still wait for more media outlets to call it a war.
Bet on whether Israel will be able to crack Iran’s toughest nut, the Fordow nuclear site:
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-fordow-be-put-out-of-commissio?r=YmVucw
Here is a quote from Al Jazeera from 25 min ago:
„The official [senior Iranian security official], speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Iran did not start the war, but would determine its end.
The conflict is Netanyahu’s war, the official said, and its outcome would be the destruction of the Israeli regime.“
I know this will not resolve the market, but surely still interesting. Although Iran has called this a war since the start yesterday.
@JoshCohen IDF calling it a war is pretty strong. I wonder if the media will pick up on it
That implies Israeli media will call it a war in their other communications? I wonder if that is just a way to encourage public support however, so it might not apply to international media.
@hruss If Haaretz, CNN, BBC and Al Jazeera all call it a war I will consider it sufficient to resolve it YES.
@Grothenfla As far as I can see CNN and Al Jazeera websites have only quoted others calling it a war. Have their broadcasters been referring to it as a war?
@MarkNicoll I mentioned these media vehicles as sufficient to resolve YES, not necessarily so. A lot of the international media is calling it a war, such as Axios, BBC, Haaretz, The Guardian, and The Times of Israel. There is also the point that members of both the Israeli and Iranian governments have called it a war.
@Yaqubali If it reaches this point, I believe the media will call it a war. I will indeed resolve it as yes if the international media consistently refers to it as a war.
Iran said Israel’s strikes on its military and nuclear facilities on Friday were a “declaration of war” and called on the UN Security Council to act.
In a letter to the United Nations, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchidescribed the attack as a “declaration of war” and “called on the Security Council to immediately address this issue”, the ministry said, AFP reports.
From The Guardian (Iran says Israel’s attacks on its nuclear and military sites are a ‘declaration of war’ – live). So we‘ll see what happens.