Will Israel use nuclear weapons against an adversary before 2026?
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28
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2026
10%
chance

Israel uses a nuclear weapon, either a neutron bomb, fission bomb (like used in Hiroshima) or hydrogen bomb against an adversary before January 1st, 2026.

To resolve as YES, Israel must admit the use of a weapon or the New York Times must say that Israel detonated the weapon.

Shows of force (e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border of Iran) that do not kill anyone or destroy property will cause this claim to be resolved as YES.

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>e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border with Iran

That's kind of a weird example, given that Israel does not have a border with Iran...

@sbares Border of Iran. Apologies.

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