Israel uses a nuclear weapon, either a neutron bomb, fission bomb (like used in Hiroshima) or hydrogen bomb against an adversary before January 1st, 2026.
To resolve as YES, Israel must admit the use of a weapon or the New York Times must say that Israel detonated the weapon.
Shows of force (e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border of Iran) that do not kill anyone or destroy property will cause this claim to be resolved as YES.
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I don't push it down below 1% because of fluidity, but the current 7% is crazy. It would take a likely short term danger to Israel's existence to break the current Israeli policy on the subject, let alone breaking an 80yo international taboo. Maybe if 2 of Egypt Tuekey and Iran attack on the same time, it would make sense. But really??