Will Israel use nuclear weapons against an adversary before 2026?
22
1kṀ5558
2026
2%
chance

Israel uses a nuclear weapon, either a neutron bomb, fission bomb (like used in Hiroshima) or hydrogen bomb against an adversary before January 1st, 2026.

To resolve as YES, Israel must admit the use of a weapon or the New York Times must say that Israel detonated the weapon.

Shows of force (e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border of Iran) that do not kill anyone or destroy property will cause this claim to be resolved as YES.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Uh wtf why is this at 14%

I don't push it down below 1% because of fluidity, but the current 7% is crazy. It would take a likely short term danger to Israel's existence to break the current Israeli policy on the subject, let alone breaking an 80yo international taboo. Maybe if 2 of Egypt Tuekey and Iran attack on the same time, it would make sense. But really??

>e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border with Iran

That's kind of a weird example, given that Israel does not have a border with Iran...

@sbares Border of Iran. Apologies.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules