Will Israel use nuclear weapons against an adversary before 2026?
10
26
Ṁ300Ṁ280
2026
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Israel uses a nuclear weapon, either a neutron bomb, fission bomb (like used in Hiroshima) or hydrogen bomb against an adversary before January 1st, 2026.
To resolve as YES, Israel must admit the use of a weapon or the New York Times must say that Israel detonated the weapon.
Shows of force (e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border of Iran) that do not kill anyone or destroy property will cause this claim to be resolved as YES.
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