Will Israel use nuclear weapons against an adversary before 2026?
45
1kṀ96702026
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Israel uses a nuclear weapon, either a neutron bomb, fission bomb (like used in Hiroshima) or hydrogen bomb against an adversary before January 1st, 2026.
To resolve as YES, Israel must admit the use of a weapon or the New York Times must say that Israel detonated the weapon.
Shows of force (e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border of Iran) that do not kill anyone or destroy property will cause this claim to be resolved as YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
8% chance
Will Israel conduct an attack that significantly degrades Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before January 2026?
22% chance
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
6% chance
Will the U.S. deploy a tactical nuclear weapon against Iran’s nuclear facility before January 2026?
5% chance
Will Israel deploy a tactical nuclear weapon against Iran’s nuclear facility before January 2026?
4% chance
Will there be a war between Israel and Iran before January 2026?
17% chance
Israel deploys nuclear weapons in 2025?
3% chance
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran by 2029?
34% chance
Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?
14% chance