As the creation of this market Israel has launched airstrikes in Iran and is expected to carry out several further rounds of strikes.
This market will resolve to "YES" if, by 20:00 Israel Standard Time (IST) on June 14, 2025, there is credible reporting from reputable news organizations confirming that Iran has conducted a military strike against Israel. The strike must involve the use of direct military force, such as missile attacks, airstrikes, or other forms of armed aggression, targeting Israeli territory or assets.
Clarification: the strike must appear to have a reasonable likelihood of making it to its target. The approximate standard will be that if an attack makes it to a distance of 10 minutes from Israel, it counts.
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@JonWharf sirens sounded from multiple barrages of ballistic missiles. Several hits in civilian areas, multiple civilians hospitalised. This market resolves YES.
Iran appears to have fired many drones at Israel which were intercepted immediately before reaching Israel. I think this should resolve YES.
Thoughts? I always prefer to wait a bit before resolution to avoid mistakes.
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-attack#00000197-6a86-d0d3-a7bf-ea9e2a0f0000
Looks like it can resolve - seems there are many missiles!
@palcu Yes, the resolution criteria simply requires that Iran has conducted a military strike against Israel. The attack certainly meets the criteria of "armed aggression." The success of the strike is not mentioned as a necessary factor for this to resolve.
@spiderduckpig 100 drones is enough, but I would say they must reach Israeli airspace or have a reasonable likelihood of striking an Israeli target. If, by my best estimation, an attack makes it to a distance of 10 minutes from Israel, it counts.