This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.

If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A.

This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.

Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364

Related markets:
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

31% chance. Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030? (Every problem on which it’s possible to do better than humanity at all, eg, no…