Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Question

Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030?  (Every problem on which it's possible to do better than humanity at all, eg, not Tic-Tac-Toe or inverting hashes.)

An artificial superintelligence like this would, according to some market participants' beliefs, probably kill everyone.  This creates a market distortion because M$ is not worth anything if the world ends.  Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.

This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027.  All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027.  However, up until that point, any profit or loss you make on this market will be reflected in your current wealth; which means that purely profit-interested traders can make temporary profits on this market, and use them to fund other permanent bets that may be profitable; via correctly anticipating future shifts in prices among people who do bet their beliefs on this important question, buying low from them and selling high to them.

For more on this see the paired question, https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 38% chance (350 traders, as of Nov 6, 2026).