On Oct 14 2023, Yann LeCun (Chief AI Scientist at Meta) stated: "Open source AI models will soon become unbeatable. Period."

Resolves YES if, at the end of 2025, it's decisively clear (in the judgment of Eliezer Yudkowsky) that open-source LLMs (or their successors in the role of widely used AGI tech) are more powerful or more cost-efficient than their closed-source alternatives. That is, if either all the leaderboards are full of open-source LLMs with successors to GPT-4 or Claude being far behind, or if most of the business spending for inference seems to be on running AI models built on open-source foundation models, this resolves YES.

If it's hard to tell or if that seems wrong, resolves NO. "Unbeatable" seems like it shouldn't be subtle.

• Update 2025-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about the definition of "Open Source", the creator has clarified they will use a broad, non-legalistic interpretation. Models with proprietary but widely available licenses (e.g., Llama) will likely be considered "Open Source" for the purpose of resolution.